The Olympics are always a riveting event – but did you know that in the future, you might be watching the summer vacation during the spring?
Changing weather patterns, like warmer global temperatures and extreme weather events such as cyclones and ice storms, are posing significant challenges to both the Summer and Winter Olympics. Under the current global temperature trajectory, the Earth will warm to just under 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. By just 2050, the number of extreme heat events will double and the severity will be more than twice as intense as they are now. And temperatures won’t just be hot: we will experience colder cold snaps and significant changes in precipitation.
Let’s explore what hotter hot seasons and colder cold snaps could mean for the Olympics.
The Summer Olympics are facing extreme heat
Recent research by CarbonPlan has revealed some worrying data about the future of the Summer Olympics. CarbonPlan modelled something called “wet-bulb global temperature”, which is a measure of temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind, as a more comprehensive metric than heat or humidity to assess heat stress on athletes and outdoor workers. According to their findings, many cities that have previously hosted the Summer Olympics are projected to become too hot for athletes to compete safely outdoors. “Safely” here refers to a wet-bulb global temperature of 27 degrees Celsius, which is a critical threshold for human health under extreme conditions.
This extreme heat projection isn’t just limited to past Olympic host cities. Many cities in North America, India, and Asia are also expected to face temperatures that are unsafe for athletes to train (and prepare for those gold medals).
Alternatives to avoid heat levels that can cause heat stress for athletes could include shifting the summer Olympics to spring or autumn. That could be ill-fitting for the name (it’s the “summer” Olympics after all), and it would also have significant implications for training schedules and logistics.
Extreme heat also exacerbates inequalities for athletes from countries around the world and with varying levels of resources to support their training. Presumably, a well-resourced athlete with the support of their country could train in a cooler climate, but an athlete with less financial backing might not be able to pay for accommodation, health care, and costs of living away from their family. That might mean a big difference in total medal count – and a difference that only increases over time as hot temperatures get hotter.
Changing temperatures might mean more expensive Olympics, too. Host cities will need to install cooling technologies and hydration stations and create enough shaded areas for athletes and spectators. How will those technologies be powered? Depending on the host city’s energy mix, they might contribute to higher carbon emissions.
Clearly, there is a lot to consider.
An icy dilemma (or not?!) for the Winter Olympics
The Winter Olympics are not immune to climate change either. A 2022 study from the University of Waterloo (where our co-founder Liliana worked on her PhD!) found that by 2050, only 4 out of 21 previous Winter Olympic host cities would reliably be cold enough to host the games if current temperature and carbon emission trends continue.
We know it is possible to make snow (again potentially generating carbon emissions and certainly consuming vast amounts of water), but artificial snow ices up more quickly than natural snow and can lead to more falls for skiiers and snowboarders. The Olympics cannot set athletes up for injury. It’s not likely for this to be a viable option over the long-term.
Unlike the Summer Olympics, which could potentially move to a cooler location or season, there are very few alternatives for hosting cold-weather Olympics on a warming planet. Even in the next 25 years, much fewer locations will have consistently cold temperatures that are safe to host the winter Games. It again raises the equity question – who gets to travel to the coldest places to train, and who doesn’t? Will resulting performance be truly representative of the abilities of athletes around the world? Is this fair?
The Broader Impact on Global Sports
The challenges faced by the Olympics are not isolated. They reflect broader issues that all outdoor sports and events are grappling with due to climate change. Extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and severe storms, are becoming more frequent and intense. It disrupts schedules and creates health risks for participants and spectators. It’s a challenge – but also an opportunity for the sports world to raise awareness about climate change and inspire action amongst sports fans and financiers.
At LIRIO AI, we love sports – both watching events and being active ourselves. We’ve experienced a hot day on the tennis court and know it is a bigger challenge for elite-level athletes. We also don’t want sports organizations to create a bigger climate change problem in trying to adjust to climate-related temperature challenges. We are big believers in capacity building to scale climate mitigation efforts quickly and at scale. It’s becoming everyone’s job to make sure our Earth’s population can adjust to a changing climate while reducing the temperature trend. Together, we can create a sustainable future where the excitement and unity of the Olympics, sports, and the things we love continue to thrive.